Saturday, January 26, 2013

Risk analysis and management in construction

Organizations  from  many  industries  have  recognized  the
increasing  importance  of  risk  management,  and  many
companies  have  established  risk management departments
to control  the  risks  they  are,  or might be,  exposed  to.  The
construction  industry  and  its  clients  are  widely  associated
with a high degree of risk due  to the nature of construction
business activities,  processes, environment and organization.
Risk  in  construction  has  been  the  object  of  attention
because  of  time  and  cost  over-runs  associated  with  con-
struction  projects.  Although,  Porter',  Healey  2 and  Perry
and Hayes  3 have expressed  risk as an exposure  to economic
loss  or  gain  arising  from  involvement  in  the  construction
process; Mason  4 and Moavenzadeh  5 have  regarded  this  as
an exposure  to  loss only. Bufaied  6 describes  risk  in  relation
to construction as a variable  in the process of a construction
project whose variation  results  in uncertainty as to the  final
cost,  duration  and  quality  of  the  project.
It  is  generally  recognized  that  those  within  the  con-
struction  industry  are  continually  faced  with  a  variety  of
situations  involving many unknown, unexpected,  frequently
undesirable  and  often  unpredictable  factors 7.  Ashley  8 and
Kangari  and  Riggs  9 have  all  agreed  that  these  situations
are not limited  to the construction industry;  it  is recognized
that  risk  is  built  into  any  commercial  organization's profit
structure  and  is  a basic  feature of a  free enterprise  system.
Insofar as  risk  analysis  and management  is  important  to
the  activities  of  the  construction  industry,  little  is  known

regarding  the  industry  response,  and  in  particular  the
techniques  employed  for  risk  analysis  and  management.
Simister  '° investigated the usage and benefit of project  risk
analysis and management in  1992, based on a questionnaire
survey  of  37  members  of  the  UK  Association  of  Project
Managers.  Simister's  l°  survey  was  comprised  of  respon-
dents  classified  into  five  work-related  groups:  defence
industry  (36%),  management consultancy (36%),  systems-
based  information  technology  (12 %),  telecommunications
(12%)  and  engineering  contracting  (4%).  The  objective
of  the  current  study  was  to  obtain  feedback  from  con-
struction contractors  and  construction project management
practitioners  on  the  following  aspects  of risk  analysis  and
management:
•  Risk  perception  by  the  construction  industry
•  Organizational  risk management
•  Risk  premium  in  construction projects
•  Management  of  risk
•  Current  usage  of  risk management  techniques.
The  research  survey
The  need  to  manage  risks  in  construction  is  relevant  to
all  professionals  and  groups  (client  groups,  design  team,
project  management  team,  contractors,  etc.)  in  the  con-
struction  industry which are  concerned with  cost,  time  and
quality. The current research concentrated on two categories
of respondents:  contractors  and  project management prac-
tices. The sample for the survey was a total of 100 top firms


in  the  UK  construction  industry  comprising  70  general
contractors  and  30  project  management  practices ~.  The
general  contractors  were  selected  randomly  from  a  list  of
100  contractors  published  in  the  'Contractor  File  1992 't2.
The 30 project management practices were those advertising
in  Building  during  the  period  June  1994  to  August  1994.
Subject  to  limitation  of  the  sampling,  the  firms  surveyed
represent a  large proportion of the UK construction  industry
population.  The  total turnover of the firms surveyed (£7000
million)  represents 20 % of UK contractors' output  for  1994
and  had  50,000  employees.  All  the  project  management
organizations  are  bona  fide  practices  providing  a  wide
range  of project  management  services.
The  overall  response  to  the  survey  comprised  of  30
general  contractors  (CTR)  and  13  project  management
practices  (PM)  representing  a  43%  response  rate.  The
response  rate  resulted  from  an  initial  mailing  addressed  to
the  managing  director  of  each  firm  and  a  reminder  letter,
after  two  weeks,  to  those  organizations  that  had  not
responded  to  the  original  request.  The  response  rate  is
typical  of  a  construction  industry  questionnaire  survey
and  cannot  be  regarded  as  biased  considering  Moser  and
Kalton's  j3 assertion  that  the  results of a postal  survey could
be considered  as biased  and of little value  if the  return  rate
was  lower  than  30-40%.
The  questionnaires  were  completed  by  top management
in  the  organizations  (mainly  directors  and  partners)  and
almost  all  of  them  (more  than  90%)  had  over  10  years  of
construction experience. The respondents  thus have requisite
professional  and  academic  qualifications.  On  the  basis  of
position, work experience and educational  and professional
background,  it  can  be  inferred  that  the  respondents  have
adequate  knowledge  of  the  activities  associated  with
construction  and  associated  risk.
Twenty-two per  cent  of  the  firms  surveyed  (all  the  22 %
are  project management  practices)  have  turnover  less  than
£10  million.  Forty-nine  per  cent  have  turnover  between
£10  million  and  £100  million;  29%  have  turnover  over
£100  million.  From  this  distribution  of  the  responding
firms,  it can be concluded  that the survey covers a  spectrum
of  small,  medium  and  large  firms  in  the  UK  construction
industry.
Twenty per cent of the contractors,  and 8 % of the project
management  practices,  have  designated  risk  managers•
This  suggests  that  risk  control  is  carried  out  as  part  of
normal  or  regular  activities  of  the  firms  rather  than  being
designated,  given  that  all  respondents  claimed  to  carry
out  risk  analysis  and  management  of  the  construction
business,  process and activities in their organizations. Most
of  the  respondents  (CTR =  67%  and  PM  =  77%)  did  not
have  any  formal  risk management  training.  They  claimed
to be  involved  in  risk management and  the  analysis of their
perceptions  of  risks  involved  in  construction  does  in  fact
suggest  an  awareness  of what  is  involved  in  control  of risk
and  its  consequences.


Risk  perception
Risk  catalogue  has  been  described  as  a  combination  of
threat and vulnerability which occurs when the two conditions
overlap  ~4.  A  threat  is  something  which  has  an  adverse
effect  on  the  activities  of an  organization.  A  vulnerability
is  characterized  by  a  physical  system which,  while  being
independent  of  any  specific  threat,  allows  a  threat  to  be
exploited.  The  impact  of  risk  from  threat  catalogue  and
the  frequency  of occurrence  of  risk  from  the  vulnerability

catalogue  determines  the  level  of  exposure  to  risk.
William ~5 on  the other hand  has  categorized details of each
risk  factor  into  event,  impact,  actions  and  contractual;  and
used  a  process  of project  risk  register  to  identify  risks  and
to  initiate  the  analyses  for  project  risk  management•
Risk  perception  is  generally  believed  to  be  influenced
by  people's  belief,  attitudes,  judgement  and  feelings.  The
•  16  "
report  of  The  Royal  Society  claims  that  risk  perception
cannot  be  reduced  to  a  single  subjective  correlate  of  a
particular mathematical model,  such as the product of prob-
abilities  and  consequences  because  this  imposes  unduly
restrictive  assumptions  about what  is  an  essentially  human
and  social  phenomenon•  Choffray  and  Johnson ~7  and
Ritchie  and  Marshall ~8 have  identified  factors  influencing
the  formation  of  risk  perception  including  educational
background,  practical experience,  an  individual's cognitive
characteristics,  the  availability  of  information,  peer  group
influence,  etc.
While  it is generally recognized that the  foregoing factors
may affect the  respondents'  perception of risk,  they are not
directly  investigated  in  this  study.  However,  in  order  to
obtain  the  view of the  industry  on  risk  in  construction,  the
respondents  were  asked  to  describe  risk  in  construction
projects.
The  general  contractors  offered  diversified  opinions,
quoted  as  follows:
•  "Factors which  can adversely affect the  successful com-
pletion  of  a  project  in  terms  of  budget  and  schedule,
which  in themselves are not always identifiable"  (Project
Control  Manager,  Turnover  =  £100  million,  Employ-
ment =  2000).
•  "Construction  is  a  risk  business--the  main  contractor
accepts  all  risks  relevant  to  a  contract  in  terms  of cost,
time and quality of performance"  (Director, Turnover =
£130  million,  Employment =  900).
•  "The  likelihood  of  physical,  contractual  or  economic
conditions  becoming  more  difficult  than  those  allowed
for  in  the  price"  (Managing  Director,  Turnover =  £80
million,  Employment =  600).
•  "The  opportunity  to make  a  profit on  a  contract  whilst
satisfying  the  client  quality,  delivery  and  contract  price
requirements"  (Deputy Managing Director,  Turnover =
£100  million,  Employment =  500 +).
•  "Loss  of money,  loss  of reputation,  and  a  chance  of an
accident  occurring  to  persons  on  property"  (Director,
Turnover =  £25  million,  Employment =  200).
•  "The likelihood of unplanned events occurring"  (Director
of  Business  Development,  Turnover =  £45  million,
Employment =  68).
•  "The degree of certainty  that the  financial objectives for
each particular project will be achieved and  the extent  to
which  risk  factors  can  be  quantified  at  bid  stage  and
monitored  closely"  (Group  Director,  Turnover  =  £250
million,  Employment =  2000).
•  "Tender  or  on-site  performance  mistakes  leading  to
quality under performance,  cost over-run  and an  impact
on  all  of  these  from  a  variety  of  unforeseen  circum-
stances"  (Finance  Director,  Turnover =  £200  million,
Employment =  2000).
•  "The probability of a construction  activity costing more
than  allowed  for  in  the  tender"  (Contract  Manager,
Turnover =  £20  million,  Employment =  60).
•  "Cumulating  liabilities  that arise from a particular  set of
contract  terms  for  a  construction  project"  (Managing
Director, Turnover =  £170 million,  Employment =  800).

"In  safety  terms,  as  any  sequence  of  events  which  are
likely  to  result  in  the  possibility  of  injury"  (Chief
Executive, Turnover =  £35 million, Employment =  170).
•  "Potential  overspending  against  tender  proposals"
(Managing  Director,  Turnover =  £50  million,  Employ-
ment =  600).
•  "Evaluating  the  complexity  associated  with  contracts,
programming  period  and  resource  scheduling  of  labour
and  plant  at  tender  stage"  (Group Managing  Director,
Turnover =  £80  million,  Employment =  480).
•  "Financial--due  to  vague  information,  tendering  pro-
cedure.  Legal--due to action of others.  Safety problems--
due  to  the  nature  of  construction  business"  (Group
Marketing Director,  Turnover =  £130 million,  Employ-
ment =  600).
The views expressed by the contractors are generally risk
elements  associated  with  project  objectives  7.  In  summary,
the  contractors  perceived  risk  as  the  likelihood  of unfore-
seen  factors  occurring,  which  could  adversely  affect  the
successful  completion  of the  project  in  terms  of cost,  time
and  quality.  One  contractor,  however,  saw  risk  as  an
opportunity  to  make  profit  and  not  something  that  will
always  have  an  adverse  effect.
The risk perception of construction by the project manage-
ment practices were not markedly different from the general
contractors.  Some of their comments are quoted as  follows:
•  "The  activities/ocurrences which  traditionally  are  likely
(or  to  some degree will  happen)  to  happen,  and  to  have
an adverse effect upon programme and/or cost"  (Planning
Manager,  Turnover =  £5  million,  Employment =  35).
•  "Risk  is  uncertainty  with  regard  to  events  and  their
effects  which  affects  the  project  outcome  in  terms  of
cost,  time,  quality  and  any  other  relevant  performance
criteria"  (Director,  Turnover =  £10  million,  Employ-
ment =  100).
•  "Something  to  be  avoided  or  transferred"  (Regional
Director,  Turnover =  £6  million,  Employment =  70).
•  "Comes  in  varying  forms--most  projects  are  high
risk.  People  forget  that  construction  is  a  people's  busi-
ness"  (Commercial Director,  Turnover  =  £3.5  million,
Employment =  70).
The project management practices,  generally,  recognized
that  the  consequences  of risks  directly  affect the  client  and
his  objectives  rather  than  their  practices.  This  is  not  sur-
prising as project management practices provide consultancy
services  on  a  fee  basis  and  do  not  commit  large  volumes
of  resources  to  construction  projects  in  the  manner  of
contractors.

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